83rd Oscars Picks and Predictions

The 83rd Academy Awards nominations were announced today. I'm actually a little surprised about a couple of things. "The King's Speech" came out on top with 12 nominations. I think it's well-deserved, but I'm surprised that "The Social Network" didn't get as many awards. In fact, it's not even the runner-up. "True Grit" comes in second with 10 nominations after being snubbed at the Globes. Then "The Social Network" and "Inception" with 8 a piece.

The Oscars are not without its snubs again. I think it is scandalous not to nominate "Scott Pilgrim vs. The World" for a special effects award. There is no way "Alice in Wonderland" had better effects. Even "Tron: Legacy" got snubbed for that award. And Christopher Nolan not getting nominated for Best Director is pretty lousy. A couple performances I would have liked to see recognized include Ryan Gosling in "Blue Valentine" and Andrew Garfield in "The Social Network". Garfield outshines Eisenberg in every way, IMHO.

There are still going to be two big contenders. Last year, it was "The Hurt Locker" vs. "Avatar". This year, it's "The King's Speech" vs. "The Social Network". "The Social Network" is the heavy favorite and deserving of many of its nominations, but overall, I prefer "The King's Speech".

Anne Hathaway and James Franco will be hosting the show this year. I must say that I am not anticipating them at all. Still don't know why the Academy is not capping on Conan O'Brien's popularity right now. Could really draw in viewers that might not normally watch the show. Certainly there are some good comedians that would do a good job.

Along with the list of nominees below are my opinions on who I think should win and who I think will win. I thought this year would be easy, but it actually looks like it's going to be a bit tough. I reserve the right to change any of my predictions before the Oscars begin. This is my fifth time doing this and my best score so far is 15 for 24 (62.5%), which I have gotten two years in a row now. Here's to hoping I can beat that this year.

Performance by an actor in a leading role:
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Who I want to win:
I go back and forth all of the time on Firth and Franco. It kind of depends on which movie I've seen last. But point a gun to my head, and I'll say Colin Firth. Not cutting Franco's performance short at all, but I think he still has room to grow and more movies to make.
Who I think will win:
The big three here are Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. I'd like to wait and see how the Screen Actors Guild votes, but I confidently pick Colin Firth to win.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
Who I want to win:
So, Andrew Garfield is snubbed, but at the price of having John Hawkes nominated. That's fine with me. Although, I say drop Jeremy Renner for Garfield, and I'm happy. Really liked Bale and Rush this year. Both had fantastic performances, but I have to give the edge to Bale. He really played his character well. A lot of people say he was over-the-top, but have you see the real Dicky Eklund? The guy plays him really well.
Who I think will win:
I think Bale will finally get an Oscar.

Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
Who I want to win:
Really sad that I've only seen one of these movies. That being said, I would have to go with Portman.
Who I think will win:
Portman was so good in "Black Swan". She won the Globe, so I think she'll get the Oscar, too.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Who I want to win:
Really cool to see Steinfeld nominated for an award, but for a supporting role!? Please! That was a lead performance if I ever saw one. What a bright future for this young lady! Helena was good in "The King's Speech", but I have to say that my favorite of the year was Melissa Leo. I literally jumped up and pumped my fist when I saw her win the award at the Globes.
Who I think will win:
It'll come down to Adams, Carter, and Leo, and I think the Academy will choose Leo.

Best animated feature film of the year:
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
Who I want to win:
I'm actually glad "Despicable Me" did not get nominated here. It's a fun film, but capitalizes on its cuteness rather than its content. However, I am disappointed to not see "Tangled" on here. One of the best Disney Animation movies in a long time. I haven't seen "The Illusionist", but I really, really want to. So, out of "How to Train" and "Toy Story 3", I have to go with "Toy Story 3". I enjoyed it a little more.
Who I think will win:
I don't see why the Academy would not vote for "Toy Story 3". It was the highest grossing film of 2010 and one of the best reviewed. (That "and" is very important.)

Achievement in art direction:
“Alice in Wonderland”
Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Inception”
Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
“The King's Speech”
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
“True Grit”
Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
Who I want to win:
I would give this award to "Inception".
Who I think will win:
Alright, the first category that I'm not sure about. I'm going to go with the movie with what looks like the most elaborate art direction and choose "Alice".

Achievement in cinematography:
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins
Who I want to win:
The best cinematography of the year for me was in "The King's Speech". Hands down. Loved it.
Who I think will win:
This is hard for me to pick because other than "Inception", the cinematography in all of these films were top-notch. I feel like the Academy could go any direction here, but I'm going to pick "True Grit". I know you're thinking "WTF?", but hear me out. This is Deakins' ninth Oscar nomination. Ninth! If he doesn't win an award now, I'm not sure if he ever will. Surely the Academy must be thinking the same thing. And the cinematography really is gorgeous in that film.

Achievement in costume design:
“Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
“I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
“The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
“The Tempest” Sandy Powell
“True Grit” Mary Zophres
Who I want to win:
"Tron: Legacy" should have gotten a nomination here. Even the original got nominated back in 1983 (a good year, might I add). I'm so upset, I don't really care about this now, so I'll just say "The King's Speech".
Who I think will win:
Another tough category. I'll choose "The King's Speech".

Achievement in directing:
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Who I want to win:
What a solid list of nominees. All deserving, but I would like to see the Coen Brothers replaced by Chris Nolan. Oh well. Out of these directors, I would vote for David Fincher. Even though I liked "The King's Speech" more, I think Fincher has been overdue for this award and I really did like all of the technical aspects of the movie.
Who I think will win:
Fincher will win.

Best documentary feature:
“Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
“Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
“Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
Who I want to win:
I have never liked this category. The political leaning is just too much for me. I can't really complain about "Exit Through the Gift Shop" and "Waste Land" though. Both are intriguing films about unconventional art. I would be okay with either of these winning. I have not seen "Restrepo" yet, but I plan on seeing it soon. Some are surprised not to see "Catfish" on here. I'm not. Maybe I will change my mind later, but for now, my envelope has "Exit" on it.
Who I think will win:
What is the Academy's biggest concern right now? Last year it was the ocean, two years before that it was interrogation, and before that, global warming. Going with a non-politically motivated "documentary" would not be a surprise though. Still, I'm going to go with the movie about the economy since that's the big topic these days. I think "Inside Job" will win.

Best documentary short subject:
“Killing in the Name” Nominees to be determined
“Poster Girl” Nominees to be determined
“Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
“Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
“The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
Who I want to win:
Since I haven't seen any of these, this section kind of turns into 'what movie I would rather see based on the plot synopsis' category. "Killing in the Name" is about a man who speaks out against terrorism and that's something we can all agree on. "Strangers No More" sounds like a sweet story about a school that children from forty-eight different countries and diverse backgrounds go to. And "The Warriors of Qiugang" is about villagers in central China who take on a chemical company that is poisoning their land and water. I would have to say that out of these three, I would most like to see "Strangers".
Who I think will win:
Probably one of the other two that I did not mention. "Poster Girl" is about a poster girl for women in combat who suffers from PTSD. "Sun Come Up" is about climate change refugees. Hmmm... I'll say "Poster Girl."

Achievement in film editing:
“Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
“The Fighter” Pamela Martin
“The King's Speech” Tariq Anwar
“127 Hours” Jon Harris
“The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
Who I want to win:
Another category I would have liked to see "Scott Pilgrim" nominated for. Even "Inception" should have been nominated here. Think of all the editing towards the end of the film. I want "127 Hours" to win something this year, so I would go with Jon Harris. I really liked the editing he did with Danny Boyle. They suit each other well.
Who I think will win:
Probably "The Social Network".

Best foreign language film of the year:
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
Who I want to win:
I haven't seen any of these, but I really want to see "Dogtooth" based on reviews I've read in the past. It's on Netflix instant streaming now! I'll go with that.
Who I think will win:
I've also heard really good things about "Incendies". I think the Academy will go with that.

Achievement in makeup:
“Barney's Version” Adrien Morot
“The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
Who I want to win:
What a silly list this year. I can't believe "The Wolfman" can say that it's an Oscar-nominated film. I'll go with "The Way Back" since I want to see that movie.
Who I think will win:
Total guess... "The Wolfman".

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score):
“How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
“Inception” Hans Zimmer
“The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Who I want to win:
I want Hans Zimmer to win. Love the "Inception" soundtrack. Made it on my Top Ten Albums of 2010 list.
Who I think will win:
I'm almost certain that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross will come out winners.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song):
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Who I want to win:
I would vote for "I See the Light". Like that song.
Who I think will win:
Hard to choose. I don't think any of the other songs are deserving of an Academy Award. I'm worried that Randy Newman will win again. I'll say that the Academy will side with me and go with "Tangled".

Best motion picture of the year:
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
Who I want to win:
This year really shows the benefit of nominating 10 movies for Best Picture. All of these films are deserving of the nomination. Without the 10 nominations, we might not have seen "Toy Story 3" on here, so that's another plus. But who do I want to win? If I were a member of the Academy, I would vote for "The King's Speech". Easy choice in my book.
Who I think will win:
This is "The Social Network's" year. It'll probably take home the prize.

Best animated short film:
“Day & Night” Teddy Newton
“The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
“Let's Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
“The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
Who I want to win:
/Film did a great job covering this category last year, but not this year. Seeing as how "Day & Night" was the only short I saw last year, I'll choose that. It really was smart, funny, and had great sound design.
Who I think will win:
Seeing as how I know nothing about any of the other shorts, I'll say "Day & Night" will win. As I read more, I might change this. "The Gruffalo" has a lot of star power behind it.

Best live action short film:
“The Confession” Tanel Toom
“The Crush” Michael Creagh
“God of Love” Luke Matheny
“Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt
“Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
Who I want to win:
I don't know a single thing about this category. I would pick "Na Wewe" because it sounds funny to say.
Who I think will win:
Total shot in the dark. "God of Love."

Achievement in sound editing:
“Inception” Richard King
“Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger
Who I want to win:
All of these films had fantastic sound editing. Yes, even "Unstoppable." This is a tough one, but I guess I would vote for "Tron: Legacy" since this is the only award it was nominated for.
Who I think will win:
"Inception" will probably take it.

Achievement in sound mixing:
“Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King's Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Who I want to win:
Funny to see "Salt" here, though I can't speak to its audio quality because I never saw heard it. I don't really think of "The Social Network" as having good sound mixing. "The King's Speech" neither. I would vote for "Inception" here.
Who I think will win:
I'm going to guess that "Inception" will win both sound categories. Hopefully I'm right on one of them.

Achievement in visual effects:
“Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
“Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
Who I want to win:
Once again, I have to talk about how "Scott Pilgrim" and "Tron" are absolutely snubbed here. They are both visual effects-heavy films that deserve so much more. Out of the movies listed, I would vote for "Inception".
Who I think will win:
"Inception" should win over these other films.

Adapted screenplay:
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Who I want to win:
I would have to let Sorkin have it. Boring story, but great writing.
Who I think will win:
I think "The Social Network" will win.

Original screenplay:
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
Who I want to win:
I actually downloaded the screenplay for "The King's Speech". I could never write like that. It's phenomenal. I would vote for that.
Who I think will win:
A tough category this year. "The Kids Are All Right" could win here since it might not win any other prizes. I'll just play it safe and say "The King's Speech".

My reviews for movies that are nominated this year:
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Inception
127 Hours
The Fighter
Black Swan
The Town
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Tangled
Tron: Legacy
Unstoppable
Iron Man 2
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I

Once again, this list can change at any time between now and the big show, but once the show starts on February 27th, these predictions stick. Check back on my blog after the show to see the results and my final thoughts. While you wait, check out my predictions and results from the last four years:

2010 Predictions | Results
2009 Predictions | Results
2008 Predictions | Results
2007 Predictions | Results