The 86th Academy Awards are tomorrow. I usually do this the day that nominee announcements come out, but I haven't had time. Below are my opinions on who I think should win and who I think will win in each category. Every year is difficult to predict, so I reserve the right to change any of my predictions before the Oscars begin. This is my eighth time doing this and my best score so far is 19 for 24 (79%), which I got last year, and I remain to be undefeated since starting our Oscar party that we hold. Here's to hoping I can beat that record.
Performance by an actor in a leading role:
Christian Bale in “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern in “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club”
Who I want to win:
Really disappointed that Joaquin Phoenix did not get a nomination for his performance in "Her." When will that guy get a statue? Going with that theme, I'd vote for Leo to finally take home an Oscar.
Who I think will win:
Matthew McConaughey will take it. It was a strong role.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Barkhad Abdi in “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper in “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender in “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club”
Who I want to win:
Can't say I'm overly excited about any of these nominees, but if I had to vote for someone, I'd pick Michael Fassbender who has more talent than the other four guys combined.
Who I think will win:
Jared Leto will win for his Oscar bait of a role.
Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Amy Adams in “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock in “Gravity”
Judi Dench in “Philomena”
Meryl Streep in “August: Osage County”
Who I want to win:
Greta Gerwig should have a nomination here. Another weak category, with the exception of Cate Blanchett. I'd give her the award.
Who I think will win:
Blanchett winning is a sure thing.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Sally Hawkins in “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts in “August: Osage County”
June Squibb in “Nebraska”
Who I want to win:
Worst list out of the bunch. No one here deserves the award. Force my hand, and I would vote for Lawrence.
Who I think will win:
This is the toughest to predict out of all the acting categories, but Nyong'o has been winning pretty steadily lately, so I think her.
Best animated feature film of the year:
“The Croods” Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco and Kristine Belson
“Despicable Me 2” Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin and Chris Meledandri
“Ernest & Celestine” Benjamin Renner and Didier Brunner
“Frozen” Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho
“The Wind Rises” Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
Who I want to win:
I'm torn between "Frozen" and "The Wind Rises," but, you know, Miyazaki's rumored last film was not his greatest. I would pick "Frozen."
Who I think will win:
Probably "Frozen."
Achievement in cinematography:
“The Grandmaster” Philippe Le Sourd
“Gravity” Emmanuel Lubezki
“Inside Llewyn Davis” Bruno Delbonnel
“Nebraska” Phedon Papamichael
“Prisoners” Roger A. Deakins
Who I want to win:
The cinematography in "Gravity" was probably so difficult. Voting for that.
Who I think will win:
"Gravity" should secure it.
Achievement in costume design:
“American Hustle” Michael Wilkinson
“The Grandmaster” William Chang Suk Ping
“The Great Gatsby” Catherine Martin
“The Invisible Woman” Michael O’Connor
“12 Years a Slave” Patricia Norris
Who I want to win:
I would actually go with "American Hustle" here. Love the clothing of that time.
Who I think will win:
Going with the Academy's trend of voting for the period pieces, I think "The Great Gatsby" has the best chance of winning.
Achievement in directing:
“American Hustle” David O. Russell
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón
“Nebraska” Alexander Payne
“12 Years a Slave” Steve McQueen
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese
Who I want to win:
Alfonso. He's my favorite director and "Gravity" is a masterpiece.
Who I think will win:
He'll win.
Best documentary feature:
“The Act of Killing” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
“Cutie and the Boxer” Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
“Dirty Wars” Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
“The Square” Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
“20 Feet from Stardom” Morgan Neville, Gil Friesen and Caitrin Rogers
Who I want to win:
I loved "The Act of Killing." It was in my top five most favorite films of the year.
Who I think will win:
"20 Feet from Stardom" is the favorite, so I think it will win.
Best documentary short subject:
“Cave Digger” Jeffrey Karoff
“Facing Fear” Jason Cohen
“Karama Has No Walls” Sara Ishaq
“The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life” Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed
“Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall” Edgar Barens
Who I want to win:
No opinion as I haven't seen any of them.
Who I think will win:
The Lady in Number 6. Just guessing.
Achievement in film editing:
“American Hustle” Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
“Captain Phillips” Christopher Rouse
“Dallas Buyers Club” John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
“12 Years a Slave” Joe Walker
Who I want to win:
Really tough for me to decide, actually. I'd consider "American Hustle," "Captain Phillips," and "Gravity." Since I liked "Gravity" the most, I'd pick that.
Who I think will win:
"Gravity."
Best foreign language film of the year:
“The Broken Circle Breakdown” Belgium
“The Great Beauty” Italy
“The Hunt” Denmark
“The Missing Picture” Cambodia
“Omar” Palestine
Who I want to win:
I have a few of these sitting on my hard drive and I never got around to seeing them.
Who I think will win:
"The Great Beauty" has been winning a lot, so it should win here.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling:
“Dallas Buyers Club” Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” Stephen Prouty
“The Lone Ranger” Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny
Who I want to win:
I want "Bad Grandpa" to win so that people will refer to it as, "Academy Award-winner 'Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa.'"
Who I think will win:
"Dallas Buyers Club," probably. It had a $250 makeup budget.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score):
“The Book Thief” John Williams
“Gravity” Steven Price
“Her” William Butler and Owen Pallett
“Philomena” Alexandre Desplat
“Saving Mr. Banks” Thomas Newman
Who I want to win:
Two of my favorite scores in this category, "Gravity" and "Her." Since I've listened to "Gravity" the most, I'd pick Price to win it.
Who I think will win:
Steven Price should take it.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song):
“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”
Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from “Frozen”
Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from “Her”
Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson
Who I want to win:
It's a true shame that none of the "Inside Llewyn Davis" songs got nominated. Totally deserved it. Anyway, I'd go with "Let It Go."
Who I think will win:
The "Frozen" song will win.
Best motion picture of the year:
“American Hustle” Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
“Captain Phillips” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti and Michael De Luca, Producers
“Dallas Buyers Club” Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter, Producers
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and David Heyman, Producers
“Her” Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze and Vincent Landay, Producers
“Nebraska” Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa, Producers
“Philomena” Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan and Tracey Seaward, Producers
“12 Years a Slave” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas, Producers
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese, Leonardo DiCaprio, Joey McFarland and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
Who I want to win:
Would love to see "Gravity" win this. My favorite film of last year.
Who I think will win:
It's going to come down to "Gravity" and "12 Years." I really hope "Gravity," so I'll pick that.
Achievement in production design:
“American Hustle” Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler
“Gravity” Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
“The Great Gatsby” Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn
“Her” Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena
“12 Years a Slave” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker
Who I want to win:
"Gravity." See a theme?
Who I think will win:
"The Great Gatsby" because the Academy probably thought it was FABULOUSSSTH!
Best animated short film:
“Feral” Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden
“Get a Horse!” Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim
“Mr. Hublot” Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares
“Possessions” Shuhei Morita
“Room on the Broom” Max Lang and Jan Lachauer
Who I want to win:
Didn't see any except "Get a Horse," which was incredible and inventive. I'd pick that.
Who I think will win:
I think the Academy will appreciate the throwback, so "Get a Horse" should win.
Best live action short film:
“Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)” Esteban Crespo
“Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)” Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras
“Helium” Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson
“Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)” Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari
“The Voorman Problem” Mark Gill and Baldwin Li
Who I want to win:
Haven't seen any of them.
Who I think will win:
"The Voorman problem" because 9/10 of the last winners have been in English, and I heard Martin Freeman is great.
Achievement in sound editing:
“All Is Lost” Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
“Captain Phillips” Oliver Tarney
“Gravity” Glenn Freemantle
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Brent Burge
“Lone Survivor” Wylie Stateman
Who I want to win:
"Gravity" had amazing sound editing in it. Best of the year.
Who I think will win:
Sometimes they give this to a movie that didn't get nominated in the other bigger categories, but I just don't see that happening this year. I'm going with "Gravity."
Achievement in sound mixing:
“Captain Phillips” Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
“Gravity” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
“Inside Llewyn Davis” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
“Lone Survivor” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow
Who I want to win:
Again, "Gravity." Amazing sound.
Who I think will win:
It would be nice to see "Inside Llewyn Davis" win something, but I think it'll be "Gravity."
Achievement in visual effects:
“Gravity” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
“Iron Man 3” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
“The Lone Ranger” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
“Star Trek Into Darkness” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton
Who I want to win:
"Gravity" totally deserves this one. It would be a true shame if it did not win here.
Who I think will win:
"Gravity."
Adapted screenplay:
“Before Midnight” Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
“Captain Phillips” Screenplay by Billy Ray
“Philomena” Screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
“12 Years a Slave” Screenplay by John Ridley
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Screenplay by Terence Winter
Who I want to win:
It would be neat to have "Before Midnight" win, so that it would get more visibility. I'd pick that.
Who I think will win:
"12 Years a Slave" will easily win.
Original screenplay:
“American Hustle” Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
“Blue Jasmine” Written by Woody Allen
“Dallas Buyers Club” Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
“Her” Written by Spike Jonze
“Nebraska” Written by Bob Nelson
Who I want to win:
"Her." Fantastic dialogue, great movie.
Who I think will win:
I think "Her" has a good shot.
Once again, this list can change at any time between now and the big show, but once the show starts on March 2nd, these predictions stick. Check back on my blog after the show to see the results and my final thoughts. While you wait, check out my predictions and results from the last six years:
2013 Predictions | Results
2012 Predictions | Results
2011 Predictions | Results
2010 Predictions | Results
2009 Predictions | Results
2008 Predictions | Results
2007 Predictions | Results
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