85th Oscars Picks and Predictions

The 85th Academy Awards nominations were announced today. "Lincoln" leads with 12 nominations followed by "Life of Pi" with 11. There are nine films once again nominated for Best Picture and I've seen all but two, "Lincoln" and "Zero Dark Thirty."

The Oscars are not without its snubs again, but I'm less disappointed about them this year. Yes, it seems bizarre that Ben Affleck, Quentin Tarantino, and Kathryn Bigelow did not receive Best Director noms, yet all of the directors who were nominated totally deserve it. I would have been equally upset if it was any one of them sitting on the outside. I guess the biggest surprise on that list in Benh Zeitlin for "Beast of the Southern Wild," but I think it's a very well-earned nomination. I believe "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" was snubbed for Best Adapted Screenplay, and yet once again, I wouldn't want to remove any of the actual nominees in that category. "Bully" and "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" were snubbed of Documentary nominations. The category that probably gets me the most upset is the Achievement in Cinematography. Aside from "Life of Pi," I don't think any of the other nominees deserve it. Especially when you had genius cinematography in movies like "Les Misérables" and "The Master." One snub that I keep seeing that I won't ever agree with is "Skyfall" for Best Picture. Are you kidding me? That movie was lamesauce. Is it just because the Brits couldn't come up with much better this year or something?

Seth MacFarlane is hosting and I think it's a brilliant choice. He seems to be at the top of his game with Family Guy and American Dad still running and "Ted" being a pretty big comedy hit last year. He's a great show man, too, with some musical talent, so this is just a perfect fit.



Along with the list of nominees below are my opinions on who I think should win and who I think will win. Every year is difficult to predict, so I reserve the right to change any of my predictions before the Oscars begin. This is my seventh time doing this and my best score so far is 16 for 24 (67%), which I got two years ago, and I remain to be undefeated since starting our Oscar party that we hold. Here's to hoping I can beat the record this year.

Performance by an actor in a leading role:
Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman in "Les Misérables"
Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
Denzel Washington in "Flight"
Who I want to win:
Joaquin Phoenix would be my pick. This is his third performance to garner him a nomination along with his roles in "Gladiator" and "Walk the Line." The man deserves this award.
Who I think will win:
My gut tells me that DDL is going to win the big award again.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Alan Arkin in "Argo"
Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"
Who I want to win:
Christoph Waltz in this category feels out of place to me. I feel like he was more of a lead in "Django," but that might be just me. "The Master" had my two favorite performances by actors this year, so I would pick Philip Seymour Hoffman to get his second award.
Who I think will win:
Robert De Niro in "SLP" was great and he hasn't won in over 30 years. This will be one of the closest categories, but I think he'll get it.

Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"
Who I want to win:
Really interesting category this year as we have the oldest Best Actress nominee ever with Emmanuelle Riva, as well as the youngest nominee ever with Quvenzhané Wallis. But if I were to pick, I would vote for Jessica Chastain. No, I haven't seen "Zero Dark Thirty" yet, but I've heard that she's great, and the woman has had an incredible last two years.
Who I think will win:
Emmanuelle Riva has been doing well in the other awards, but my official pick is Jennifer Lawrence.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Amy Adams in "The Master"
Sally Field in "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Who I want to win:
I have not seen "The Sessions," but I have seen "Les Mis" and Anne Hathaway's short, but brilliant performance was the best of the year for me. Quick interesting tidbit before we leave the acting categories: Did you know that Silver Linings Playbook is the first film in 31 years to have at least one Oscar nomination in each of the four acting categories?
Who I think will win:
I predict that Hathaway will finally go home with her prize.

Best animated feature film of the year:
"Brave" Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
"Frankenweenie" Tim Burton
"ParaNorman" Sam Fell and Chris Butler
"The Pirates! Band of Misfits" Peter Lord
"Wreck-It Ralph" Rich Moore
Who I want to win:
Boy, lots of junky stuff in here. I mean, that's not to say that these movies are incredibly bad. In fact, I liked them all in their own ways, except for "Wreck-It Ralph." I loved that movie so much and would have to pick that.
Who I think will win:
It's actually really hard to say this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these films take it. I think they'll side with me and pick "Ralph."

Achievement in production design:
"Anna Karenina"
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
"Les Misérables"
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
"Life of Pi"
Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
"Lincoln"
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Who I want to win:
Few might notice the change in this category's name. It has been called Achievement in Art Direction, but was changed to its new name this year with the Art Director's branch being renamed the Designer's branch. Anyway, there's a lot of great production design in these films, but "Life of Pi" is the winner for me.
Who I think will win:
If "Lincoln" is the favorite of the night, it will win. If it's not, then I see it going to "Les Mis." Official pick: "Les Mis."

Achievement in cinematography:
"Anna Karenina" Seamus McGarvey
"Django Unchained" Robert Richardson
"Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda
"Lincoln" Janusz Kaminski
"Skyfall" Roger Deakins
Who I want to win:
I already mentioned how this category makes me the most angry. Out of the majority of these awful choices, I would pick Claudio Miranda for "Life of Pi;" the only good option in there.
Who I think will win:
I will laugh and laugh and laugh so hard if Roger Deakins gets the win for "Skyfall." Not because I didn't like the movie, but because here's a man who has been nominated 10 times for an Academy Award and has never won. He's been nominated for amazing films like "The Shawshank Redemption," "Fargo," "True Grit," and two times in the same year for "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" and "No Country for Old Men." So if he wins for "Skyfall"... (Which is actually not a long shot at all!) ..."Skyfall" of all movies! I will just laugh. My official prediction is "Pi."

Achievement in costume design:
"Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran
"Les Misérables" Paco Delgado
"Lincoln" Joanna Johnston
"Mirror Mirror" Eiko Ishioka
"Snow White and the Huntsman" Colleen Atwood
Who I want to win:
Ha! Two Snow White movies nominated. But here, I will have to go with "Anna Karenina."
Who I think will win:
The Academy loves the costumes in period piece films, so it's only a matter of figuring out which one. Let's say "Anna Karenina."

Achievement in directing:
"Amour" Michael Haneke
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Ang Lee
"Lincoln" Steven Spielberg
"Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell
Who I want to win:
The controversial category that I don't think is so controversial. "Lincoln" is good and I love my Spielberg. Yes, I saw "Amour" and it's as good of a Michael Haneke entry as any. However, if I was a member of the Academy, I would vote for David O. Russell's "Silver Linings Playbook."
Who I think will win:
Hard to say. Affleck won at the DGAs, so I would think that Spielberg will take it here.

Best documentary feature:
"5 Broken Cameras"
Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
"The Gatekeepers"
Nominees to be determined
"How to Survive a Plague"
Nominees to be determined
"The Invisible War"
Nominees to be determined
"Searching for Sugar Man"
Nominees to be determined
Who I want to win:
I have not seen any of these films, but the one film that I have really been wanting to see is "Searching for Sugar Man." I guess I would pick that.
Who I think will win:
"Searching for Sugar Man" could likely win it.

Best documentary short subject:
"Inocente"
Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
"Kings Point"
Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
"Mondays at Racine"
Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
"Open Heart"
Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
"Redemption"
Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill
Who I want to win:
Obviously have not seen these as well. We have shorts about an artist, a retirement community, a cancer salon, heart surgery, and bottle and can redeemers. Out of all of them, the artist's story sound the most intriguing, so I would pick "Inocente."
Who I think will win:
Both "Inocente" and "Mondays at Racine" have won in other competitions, so maybe "Mondays at Racine" since it's about cancer.

Achievement in film editing:
"Argo" William Goldenberg
"Life of Pi" Tim Squyres
"Lincoln" Michael Kahn
"Silver Linings Playbook" Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
"Zero Dark Thirty" Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg
Who I want to win:
I cannot recall a single movie that I was impressed with for the editing this year. This list is pretty vanilla, but I guess I would pick Goldenberg for "Argo."
Who I think will win:
I think the Academy will recognize "Argo" here.

Best foreign language film of the year:
"Amour" Austria
"Kon-Tiki" Norway
"No" Chile
"A Royal Affair" Denmark
"War Witch" Canada
Who I want to win:
I have only seen "Amour," so I would pick that.
Who I think will win:
Considering that "Amour" was nominated for five different categories, I think it's pretty clear that it will win.

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling:
"Hitchcock"
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
"Les Misérables"
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell
Who I want to win:
Did you see how they added "hairstyling" to this category's name? This is the first year they changed it. I think it's funny because you have "Hitchcock" whose main character was bald, as well as "Les Mis" where Anne Hathaway had her hair cut off. Still, I like "Les Mis" in this category.
Who I think will win:
Probably "Les Mis."

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score):
"Anna Karenina" Dario Marianelli
"Argo" Alexandre Desplat
"Life of Pi" Mychael Danna
"Lincoln" John Williams
"Skyfall" Thomas Newman
Who I want to win:
Didn't particularly care for any of these scores, but I like my John Williams.
Who I think will win:
Mychael Danna will probably win for "Life of Pi."

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song):
"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall"
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
"Suddenly" from "Les Misérables"
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Who I want to win:
Funny to see Seth MacFarlane get a nomination and he's hosting, too. I actually enjoyed Adele's "Skyfall."
Who I think will win:
People like Adele.

Best motion picture of the year:
"Amour" Nominees to be determined
"Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
"Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
"Les Misérables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
"Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
"Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
"Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
"Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers
Who I want to win:
Out of all of these films, I liked "Silver Linings Playbook" the most, so I wish it would win.
Who I think will win:
"Argo" has pretty much swept all of the other awards, so I think it'll win the big prize here.

Best animated short film:
"Adam and Dog" Minkyu Lee
"Fresh Guacamole" PES
"Head over Heels" Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
"Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"" David Silverman
"Paperman" John Kahrs
Who I want to win:
"PAPERMAN!" "PAPERMAN!" "PAPERMAN!!!!!!!!" It was my favorite entertainment piece out of anything from 2012.
Who I think will win:
The only other animated short I saw this year was The Simpsons one, but I'm pretty confident that "Paperman" will win.

Best live action short film:
"Asad" Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
"Buzkashi Boys" Sam French and Ariel Nasr
"Curfew" Shawn Christensen
"Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)" Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
"Henry" Yan England
Who I want to win:
Alright, for this category, we've got shorts about a Somali boy, dead goat polo, babysitting, death, and a pianist. The dead goat polo sounds the most fun, so maybe "Buzkashi Boys."
Who I think will win:
"Curfew" seems to have swept many of its awards, so let's say that.

Achievement in sound editing:
"Argo" Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
"Django Unchained" Wylie Stateman
"Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
"Skyfall" Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
"Zero Dark Thirty" Paul N.J. Ottosson
Who I want to win:
I'm actually torn between "Life of Pi" and "Django Unchained" here. All of the ocean and animal sounds for "Life of Pi" were great, but "Django" also had some really good purposefully obnoxious sound editing. I guess I would go with "Pi."
Who I think will win:
The Academy loves to choose the entertaining film that won't win Best Picture usually for the sound awards, so "Skyfall."

Achievement in sound mixing:
"Argo"
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
"Les Misérables"
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
"Life of Pi"
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
"Lincoln"
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
"Skyfall"
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson
Who I want to win:
Even though I don't think it was executed perfectly, "Les Mis" for its big balls.
Who I think will win:
"Les Misérables" will beat out "Skyfall" only because of its unique sound mixing... and balls.

Achievement in visual effects:
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
"Life of Pi"
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
"Marvel's The Avengers"
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
"Prometheus"
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
"Snow White and the Huntsman"
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
Who I want to win:
Personally, I would pick "Prometheus." That movies visuals made me enjoy the film much more than others.
Who I think will win:
"Life of Pi," maybe.

Adapted screenplay:
"Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
"Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
"Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell
Who I want to win:
I would like to see David O. Russell win here.
Who I think will win:
Tony Kushner should probably win for "Lincoln," but I think it'll go to "Argo."

Original screenplay:
"Amour" Written by Michael Haneke
"Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino
"Flight" Written by John Gatins
"Moonrise Kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
"Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal
Who I want to win:
I would like to see Wes Anderson finally get an Oscar as "Moonrise Kingdom" was just great.
Who I think will win:
Perhaps Tarantino will get this since he wasn't nominated for Best Director.

My full reviews for movies that are nominated this year:
The Master
Flight
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Mirror Mirror
Paperman
The Avengers
Prometheus
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Amour
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Cloud Atlas

Once again, this list can change at any time between now and the big show, but once the show starts on February 24th, these predictions stick. Check back on my blog after the show to see the results and my final thoughts. While you wait, check out my predictions and results from the last five years:

2012 Predictions | Results
2011 Predictions | Results
2010 Predictions | Results
2009 Predictions | Results
2008 Predictions | Results
2007 Predictions | Results